Statistical Analysis

Performing statistical analysis on your own trades is crucial for growth. Logging your trades in a journal is vital, but meaningless if you don't reflect on your performance. After few requests, here's my trade results for May 2017 and the statistical analysis I performed on myself.

 


May 2017 Trade Performance

 

I. Trade Journal

The following data was collected from trade journal shown below.

 

II. Account Performance

Now that is a pretty big drawdown. Did you break your rules? If no, then it’s merely a string of unfortunate trade results. If yes, you must investigate what drove you to take these trades. After reviewing the charts of these trades, I decided I have not broken my rules.

 

III. Account Statistics

Total Trades: 23

Total Wins: 13

Total Losses: 10

Win Percentage: 56.52%

Loss Percentage: 43.48%

 

IV. Trade Results

1. Histogram of Trade Results (By R Multiple)

The green bars should extend above 1.00 as much as possible. The pink bars should never break below -1.00 under any circumstances.

2. Table of Trade Outcomes

3. Distribution of Trade Outcomes

The distribution of the bars should resemble a bell curve with an extension to the right. As long as it takes that shape, you’re on the right track.

 

V. Trade Setups

1. Setups Taken

2. Gap Up Performance

3. Gap Down Performance

4. Mistakes

5. Cumulative Performance by Setup

 

VI. Conclusion

1. During that drawdown, what happened? Retrace your steps and recall your day. Were you upset? Were you frantic? Did you get enough sleep the night before? Identify the error and work towards isolation.

If nothing happened, then this was a simple drawdown that happens to all trading plans. Stay calm, stay the course, and continue trading the same way.

2. You had a higher win% for Gap Up Setups, but your final result was -0.53 R. This means that your wins were not very large, while your losses were. Be wary of these setups.